Just A Landlord

I was looking over the web stats for the free online Wisconsin eviction forms provided by the Apartment Association of Southeastern WI

In the past 30 days 2506 notices were generated. In the 30 days preceding that 1904 notices generated. The number of unique visitors was up 15.5% from last month, while the number of forms printed were up 24%

May 6th and May 11th were the two highest volume days ever.

So is this an indication that tenants are having more trouble paying rent or just more owners using the site? I do not know.

I was having a conversation with a buddy today about the accuracy of the most recent City of Milwaukee assessments and where values are truly headed. I thought it was relevant enough that I turned my email to him with links supporting my views into this post.

The Milwaukee Journal quotes Alderman Mike Murphy who believes our housing market has hit bottom:

“I do think we’ve hit the bottom,” said Ald. Michael Murphy, chairman of the Common Council’s Finance & Personnel Committee. Murphy, Mayor Tom Barrett and Assessment Commissioner Mary Reavey all said they were hopeful that property values would start to slowly rise again over the next few years.

It would be wonderful if that in fact was correct, however there are many indicators that the bottom may still be a ways off.  The Feds are considering forced reductions of mortgages to appraised value.  This will allow owners to sell for less than today and remain financially  unscathed.  Previously if you owed $150k on your home you would fight like heck to get at least $150k, otherwise you would have to pay out of your pocket to sell.  If this becomes policy it will allow owners to sell for much less than they owe today, creating a general downward pressure on all home prices.

Then there is the phenomena of  people who can pay their mortgages, but are simply walking away.  It used to be dishonorable not to pay your debts.  Now it has the cute name of “Strategic Defaults.”  This along with short sales undermine our entire economic system as well as real estate values.  There just isn’t the social pressure to pay what you agreed to anymore.

Finally there is a large shadow market of homes and other real estate that are foreclosed but not on the resale market.  As these enter the market it will further drive down prices. If you want to see the shadow market in action write down the addresses of the obviously foreclosed buildings and homes that do not have broker signs in front of them, look up the ownership on the city site, then look for the property on MLS.  Many will be lender owned, but not actively marketed.

The Milwaukee Journal article reports the Assessor claims the decline in values over last year to be a meager 2.4%  One reader of the Journal article makes a very valid comment:

“Ask any realtor, appraiser, banker, buyer or seller of a home over the past 24 months how much values have dropped, 2.4% is a joke they need to remove the decimal point the acutal number is closer to 24%.”

I concur with this person that the real values of properties, at least in the neighborhoods we own in are dramatically less than the assessed values.  Milwaukee has typically overvalued the lower value neighborhoods in what I believe is a regressive tax scheme to lower the taxes of the more affluent white neighborhoods at the expense of these who can least afford higher housing costs.  The city assessor justifies this by excluding many comps as invalid, while being quite happy to use those homes purchased by first time buyers using down payment grants etc. that hid the true value of the purchase.  Today many of those homes are in foreclosure.

So while Milwaukee officials are hopeful that the end of the decline is nigh, and I too wish this was true as I happen to have a large financial interest in this subject, it probably isn’t so.  Many well studied economist and others believe that the Milwaukee area home prices will return to 2007 values in the fourth quarter of 2017 These same experts found that we are currently 15% off the mark today, not the 2.4% the Assessor has given.  They also predict the slide won’t stop until fourth quarter 2011.

But the city has strong motivation to artificially keep assessed values inflated:  That of course is to maintain artificially high property taxes while at the same time being able to claim that have only raised the mil (amount per thousand dollars of assessed value) by a small percentage.

So while many, including the city officials and  me, “hope” for a housing price recovery soon, hope is not a workable strategy. Please post your comments and challenge my views.  We all have a lot riding on making he best guess here.

Normally I do not use this site to promote sales of any type.  However the require EPA training is important and the Apartment Association is offering a significant discount.

UPDATE:

The next class is now scheduled for Saturday, April 17th, from 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. in Milwaukee

By now you should all be aware of the new lead paint rules that will affect your business, with an effective date of 4/22/10.  If not follow this link and weep.

The Apartment Association of SE WI has made arrangements with a Wisconsin certified training company to offer these one day courses at $180 for members and $240 for non-members.  This is a very good price.  For example Milwaukee Lead Information Center charges $260 for the same course.

The first classes have been filled.  The Association is preparing more courses.  If you are interested please contact Paulette at the association office:

paulette@apartmentassoc.org

As with all of AASEW courses it is first come first served.  Even I could not get as many employees certified in the first session as I had wished.

As of April 1st all  three families and larger buildings in Wisconsin  that have  attached garages or “fuel burning devices” –gas heat, oil heat, gas dryers, gas stoves etc. will be required to have CO detectors.  A similar law just passed the legislature for ALL one and two family buildings including owner occupied, effective February 2011.

And you will need a lot of them

CO detectors must be within 75 feet of all fuel burning device and within 15′ of each bedroom. One is required in the basement if there is a “fuel burning device” down there.  They are also  required in common hallways spaced no more than 75′.  So a 149′ hall could get away with one, just as a 6 foot hall would need one.

There is an exemption if there are no attached garages and the only ”fuel burning device” is a sealed combustion chamber unit, i.e. 90+ furnace or high efficiency water heater, that is under warranty or inspected annually.

Battery and plug in units are okay.  Mount them on the ceiling or wall.

Laws such as this and lead paint are never reversed so preparation is the order of the day.

This is an area that we should collectively work on pricing.  I’ve gotten them down to the mid thirteen dollar range for my volume.

Reference resources for Wisconsin’s CO detector Law:

Wisconsin Department Of Commerce CO detector Pamphlet

Installation Requirements For Carbon Monoxide Detectors as outlined in 2007 Wisconsin Act 205

2) INSTALLATION REQUIREMENTS. (a) Except as provided in par. (b), the owner of a residential building shall install a carbon monoxide detector in all of the following places not later than the date specified under par. (c):

1. In the basement of the building if the basement has a fuel-burning appliance.

2. Within 15 feet of each sleeping area of a unit that has a fuel-burning appliance.

3. Within 15 feet of each sleeping area of a unit that is immediately adjacent to a unit that has a fuelburning appliance.

4. In each room that has a fuel-burning appliance and that is not used as a sleeping area. A carbon monoxide detector shall be installed under this subdivision not more than 75 feet from the fuelburning appliance.

5. In each hallway leading from a unit that has a fuel-burning appliance, in a location that is within 75 feet from the unit, except that, if there is no electrical outlet within this distance, the owner shall place the carbon monoxide detector at the closest available electrical outlet in the hallway.

(b) If a unit is not part of a multiunit building, the owner of the residential building need not install more than one carbon monoxide detector in the unit.

You say “Okay, this is a scam!’  …  but it is not.  Rather it is another way of looking at purchasing, perceptions and true cost

A month ago Jeff, a buddy of mine who also uses an iPhone, tells me to try out a new app called Red Laser.  This $2 app allows you to use the iPhone/ iPod Touch camera as a barcode scanner.  The application then looks for the best price for that product locally as well as on the Internet.

I have since used it to price out both business supplies as well as stuff we personally use.  Some of the better prices I found were more than 30% less than what I was going to buy. The first few day’s savings exceed the $200 that the phone cost.  Over the rest of the month the savings well exceeded a year’s worth of cell phone service.

And the savings that you can achieve with the iPhone and other similar technology  isn’t limited to purchasing.  Using your phone’s camera to document tenant damage and be able to support your deposit claim. Take another photo to show a contractor or employee what you want fixed and save the hassle of miscommunications. I even use the camera to take quick notes  such as taking a picture of a for sale sign to get the broker’s number or while shopping to text a photo to my wife to make sure that I am getting the thing she wanted.

All of this makes you more efficient. If utilized to its potential tools such as an iPhone saves you, rather than costs you.  I would make the same argument about hiring employees, but that is another story for another day.