May 21

I wrote about unit fever a while ago. Recently I was speaking to a buddy and the subject came up. It is worth sharing again.

It is very easy to become a millionaire by investing in real estate…. simply start with five million.  Want to fast track your path to being a millionaire?  Start with only two million in the bank.

The above joke was originally about farmers, but our life and theirs are far too similar.  Both groups provide for fundamental needs, are hard businesses with high failure rates, both businesses rely too much on external factors and are both not well respected by society.  Another buddy of mine calls landlords “dirt farmers” and once told me that I should get into the day trading style of real estate.

You lose money in rental real estate by: paying too much for properties, buying at city assessed value for example; failing to consider all the costs associated with running the property, such as city sewer and water fees as well as the costs of compliance with all the rules that affect our industry; borrowing too much; and believing the broker’s or seller estimates of costs and vacancy rates…

The second greatest cause of owner failure is “unit fever” This is where one is fixated on ‘getting to 50 units’ or ‘owning a million dollars worth of real estate’ instead of focusing on the fundamentals of profitability. If your 50 units lose 5,000 a month or that million dollar commercial Class A office is 50% vacant, your checking account will be 100% vacant before long.

There is no “fun” in “fundamentals” no matter how you spell it. Fail at the fundamentals and fail financially.

Your success lies in knowing the true costs of running rental housing and accurate collection and vacancy losses that should be anticipated for the type and location of your rentals. Armed with this you must only buy properties that meet your performance targets within the confines of the economic realities of the market as opposed to some performa a seller provides you.

I remember back in 2005 or 06 when some kid (anyone 20 years younger than me) came to my office, telling me I was doing it wrong and offering to sell me an Excel sheet he had created to show the profit potential of well  leveraged near Southside housing.  Looking at his demo, I jokingly said ‘By the end of the decade Bill Gates will have to borrow money from you.” to which he replied enthusiastically, ‘Maybe not that rich, but very rich.’

Two years later he and his Excel buddies would be broke, their properties foreclosed and abandoned.  But I guess you can’t blame him entirely, some pretty smart people have done major worldwide economic damage with an Excel error.

The truth is the math is so simple all you need is a pencil and paper, okay a calculator may speed it up a bit, but not much.

How do you find accurate answers to costs and vacancy questions? The seller and their broker are probably the worst places to start looking for answers as they are both motivated to make it sound as good as it gets.

In the beginning, you should attend every local, in-person meeting of rental owners in your area. Get there early and talk to every old timer who will give you the time of day. Some will be curmudgeons, beat down by the realities of a hard business. But if you listen closely even they will help on your journey to enlightenment. Just don’t let the negativity wear off on you.

A side benefit from mingling with long-time owners is you may even meet one at the end of their career which offers you a good deal on some properties they are tired of, but of course do the math before committing. I met some people I ultimately bought properties from while networking at meetings. Seek out unusual opportunities as well. I met a group of Southside landlords that met for lunch every day. I bought properties from some of them, got maintenance connections from others and learned so much from all. Today’s new owner has a tool that we did not – Meetup.com. Go check it out.

A regret I have is that I was in the business over ten years before I joined the Apartment Association. I owe whatever success I’ve had to being an active member of the Association. Keyword “active.”

The other important tool for knowing your market is to limit your market. With few exceptions, the properties we own are within a 35 block by 35 block area, with the majority in a 15 block by 15 block subset of that area. I know these neighborhoods better than most people. That is a strategic advantage in both running the properties and buying wisely.

May 02

A reader suggests  (copy below) that much of the conversation regarding the new HUD directive on the use of criminal records in tenant screening is an attempt to  “beat the law.”  It is not.  Rather it is seeking to answer the question of how do rental owners reduce the disruption and danger of crime at their properties while also addressing the concerns of local governments and neighbors by avoiding renting to those prone to criminal activity.

Back in 2001 our company set a screening criteria that we used with only minor adjustments since.  (Copy Below) This was based on researching our failed tenants.  At that time, we found that misdemeanor convictions and evictions appeared impactful if they occurred within the past three years and felonies for drugs and violence in the past seven years.  I was surprised while reading HUD’s directive on the use of criminal records for screening that it references a report* that states the recidivism rate of criminals drops to the incidents of criminal activity in the general population at 6-7 years.  I guess we got that one right from our own data, without the fancy formulas used by the researchers. 😉

Note that HUD permits and perhaps even encourage the lifetime rejection of persons with drug distribution and manufacture convictions.  So it seems in HUD’s view, a kid with a misdemeanor possession with intent to distribute conviction can be excluded for is life, while the violent person only for a “reasonable” period of time and the habitual thief never. I question whether permitting the exclusion for drug crimes was done out of recidivism data or if it was a case of political will. I know people who have had drug issues and have overcome those problems to lead productive and successful lives.  Many of those charged with possession with intent to deliver often are simply users or addicts selling small amounts to support their habits.

Back when researching our current criteria we recognized that some applicants with criminal histories did not cause future problems. How do you identify those who were not a risk, from those who are?  We chose to accept those with a letter of recommendation from their PO despite having convictions. In the fifteen or so years since that policy has been in place, we found applicants with the PO recommendation have a failure rate below that of general applicants.  It is unlikely that a PO would put their name to paper if they did not believe in the client.

Our company’s existing screening criteria seemed to be close to the requirements under the HUD April 4th directive. We had to modify it to exclude simple possession drug convictions and theft convictions as  disqualifiers.  While I believe that both are indicators of tenancies that may fail, neither are permitted today.  We also reduced the lookback period on felonies from seven years to six.  The report  HUD based their finding on said 6-7 years.   I do not want to be arguing over being at the top end. And finally, we added more options than PO letters, although PO letters will remain an automatic qualifier if our other criteria are met.  Our revised criminal screening is attached below.  Use it at your own risk if you wish and remember that I am just a landlord, not an attorney.

The part of the challenge is municipalities attempt to shift responsibility for criminal acts from the criminal to the owner of the house they live in through nuisance ordinances.  These laws encouraged owners to have strict no criminal screening policies.

If you go to neighborhood meetings, you will find that most people who live in neighborhoods where your properties are located will be angry if you rent to anyone with a criminal history regardless of the charge or how long ago it was.

This attempt by HUD to solve a problem that was not created by the housing industry (discriminatory law enforcement) creates a solution that makes screening and complying with nuisance laws far more difficult and far more prone to litigation.

All this leads to a tough balancing act for the property owners – far more difficult and involved than simply trying to “beat the law.”

* Megan C. Kurlychek et al., Scarlet Letters and Recidivism: Does an Old Criminal Record Predict Future Offending?, 5 Criminology and Pub. Pol’y 483 (2006) (reporting that after six or seven years without reoffending, the risk of new offenses by persons with a prior criminal history begins to approximate the risk of new offenses among persons with no criminal record).

http://www.albany.edu/bushway_research/publications/Kurlychek_et_al_2006.pdf

Affordable Rental Associates’ Revised Screening Criteria (To open the conversation, not for your use without your attorney’s review):
  • Municipal Convictions* related to manufacturing or distributing a controlled substance, crimes that indicate a demonstrable risk to the safety or peaceful enjoyment of residents or neighbors, and/or property damage: No convictions in 2 years.
  • Misdemeanor Convictions* related to manufacturing or distributing a controlled substance, crimes that indicate a demonstrable risk to the safety or peaceful enjoyment of residents or neighbors, and/or property damage: No convictions in 3 years.
  • Felony Convictions* related to manufacturing or distributing a controlled substance, crimes that indicate a demonstrable risk to the safety or peaceful enjoyment of residents or neighbors, and/or property damage: The latter of 6 years after conviction or 4 years after release from custody
  • Unresolved Cases* related to manufacturing or distributing a controlled substance, crimes that indicate a demonstrable risk to the safety or peaceful enjoyment of residents or neighbors, and/or property damage or charges that may result in imprisonment for more than 15 days: Application will be considered after resolution of the case.
    * Criminal record exception will be made for applicants with otherwise acceptable rental history and income upon positive written reference from their Parole Agent or other official on government letterhead. Other factors may be considered on a case by case basis. It is the responsibility of the applicant to supply any supporting information and documentation
Bill Writes

Much of the conversation I hear about this new directive is about figuring out ways to beat the law. I’m sure we landlords will come up with something and our lawyers will try to protect us.  But lets be realistic.  Most rental policies look back 3-5 years. Each town is different,  but most people returning from incarceration can only afford to live in low income neighborhoods. Much of this won’t apply to the higher end of the market.

Here is a little recognized fact.  About 50% of the people leaving Wisconsin prisons are Caucasians! With the increase of drug felonies and prison time courtesy of the Heroin epidemic, more are released to places like Waukesha, Appleton, Wausau, Green Bay, Janesville, La Crosse, Stevens Point than ever before.  Its true Milwaukee has a larger racial component that other parts of the state, but the fact remains, people returning from incarceration will likely live in rentals in the low income neighborhoods of your city. They make up a significant portion of the tenant pool.  Figuring out a good way to bring these people back into the market is good business.

So why not  define the best practices way of working with our tenants?   HUD issued a letter [ Notice PIH 2015-19] in 2015 to the Public Housing Authorities doing just that for PHA’s http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=PIH2015-19.pdf

Not all of this applies to us private landlords, but we can come up with our own list, run it by the attorneys, and Fair Housing.  Please email me your thoughts at billtoday43@aol.com.
In some neighborhoods the percentage of people without criminal history is much smaller than those that do.  

Second interesting fact. Most people do not re offend.  Recidivism is steadily going down in Wisconsin.  Most of the people sent back to prison are for crimeless revocations, meaning that a P.O. sent them back because of a rule violation, not a new crime. While caution in rental practices is warranted, fear is not.

Lastly, Felons are among us!!!  Its estimated that about 700,000 felons live in Wisconsin and they don’t all live in Milwaukee!  But most will live in low income neighborhoods. People on supervision make better tenants than those who are not because the fear of going back is a greater influence on current behavior.  They usually double up with family, friends, spouses, or partners. Anybody who owns property in these neighborhoods know the signs.  So lets be the leaders we are and get in front of this!

May 01

Yes.  If the property was previously weatherized and received a cert, all you have to do is record the satisfaction.  If not then you must get the certification.

If you are not sure, search for the property at:

http://dsps.wi.gov/Programs/Industry-Services/Industry-Services-Programs/Rental-Weatherization/Rental-Weatherlization-Database/

Not that the search has a few misspellings of Milwaukee, so check all of them.

If it is certified and you do not have a copy and the cert was not previously recorded get the format receive a duplicate at:

http://dsps.wi.gov/Documents/Industry%20Services/Forms/Rental/SBD-10708%20RentalWeatherizationOrderSatisfStipWaiver.pdf

Check the box for “Request for Duplicate of a Previously Issued Certificate of Compliance.”  There is a $50 fee, which is less than the cost of a new DILHR inspection.

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