Although the CDC guidance issued last Friday provides a mechanism for owners to challenge declarations that appear fraudulent, it should have little overall impact. If a large portion of the tenant population has no ability to pay rent or simply decides not to pay, housing will fail.
The Census Pulse shows nationwide 17.9% of tenants did not pay their August rent. (The reporting trails by about three weeks. Sept should be out next week) https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/hhp/hhp15.html Scroll down to the housing tables.
Wisconsin is doing better at 11.9%. I attribute our slightly better fortune to our tenant advocates, our Governor, and those who support landlords working far more collaboratively than other areas. Some metros are hovering around 20% of tenants who are behind, Los Angeles nearly 19%, NYC ~23%.
When you take into account that in good times typical owners receive 7-9% of the gross rent for their effort and investment, and today collections are off by 18%, it is easy to see we are on a collision course with massive housing failures.
A scarey side note: Nationwide 10.8% of homeowners did not make last month’s mortgage payment. This will open the door to another corporate housing buy out. https://theintercept.com/2018/01/20/you-think-your-landlord-is-bad-try-renting-from-wall-street/
It is estimated that unpaid rent by 12/31/2020 will be $34 Billion. This deficit will devastate both renters and housing for many years to come. In turn the harm to housing will continue to haunt tenants through reduced housing choices and increased future rents as owners try to stabilize.
Whether moratoriums exist, the true need is for rent assistance. This need has existed well before COVID. If renters are able to pay their rent, they avoid eviction and insurmountable debt, while enabling owners to pay their obligations as well. So far our federal government is failing at providing that assistance.